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Thursday, November 06, 2003

Abortion Law May Trigger Election Fight

We are always hearing about conservative groups gearing up to do battle against what they perceive as evil and promising to smite their evildoing opponents with righteous thunderbolts of political payback. So it's refreshing to read the piece by veteran AP reporter Tom Raum, linked above, that talks about liberals gearing up for payback over the partial-birth abortion bill.

Liberals are not nearly so good as conservatives at tapping into outrage and turning it into mobilization energy, but we're learning. And we'd better. Even though they got what they wanted, conservatives are now up in arms because two judges, one in Nebraska and one in New York, have put the abortion law on hold. This thing is certainly headed for the Supreme Court, and probably during the current term. And should they lose there (likely, because the Court previously threw out a similar Nebraska law), it will only make them hungrier for a Supreme Court appointment, thus ensuring that every last one of them will go and pull the lever for Bush in hopes of getting him four more years.

Speaking of the Supremes, Pat Robertson didn't get his wish this summer--a vacancy on the Court. But maybe we liberals ought to start praying for one to occur next summer. As Raum notes, nobody on Bush's team is wild to see the battle royal over a vacancy fall during the summer of an election year. It would put Bush in a fairly bad box. His conservative base expects a staunch anti-abortion nominee that would overturn Roe v. Wade, but the appointment of such a candidate would touch off a firestorm in the Senate, both over the nominee him- or herself and the filibuster rules the minority can use to hold up business. Said firestorm would make Bush and the Republicans looks lots more radical than they want to look with an election coming on.

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