Monday, December 15, 2003
Uhhhhhh . . .
I've been trying to decide what to think all day about the capture of Saddam Hussein. And I've finally decided that its significance is mostly symbolic. The idea that he was directing all phases of guerilla resistance against the occupying forces from a hole in the ground in Tikrit is silly, so the idea that the resistance is going to melt away now that he's gone is equally silly. It's a safe bet that the drip-drip-drip of attacks will continue as they have for months. (To their credit, American generals in Iraq have not promised any rose gardens now that Saddam has been nabbed.) Afghan government officials seem to think it might blunt the insurgency there--although their comments in this AP story sound like wishful thinking to me. There are plenty of stories today pointing out how Osama bin Laden is still in the wind, but unless he and Saddam really were running buddies, the capture won't help us find The Evil One at all. It's likely that the intelligence assets that were shifted from Afghanistan to Iraq before the war are not going to be shifted back now that Saddam has been caught.
On the homefront, the supposed "Saddam rally" on Wall Street melted before the closing bell today, and the idea floated by a couple of stories yesterday that the capture might somehow boost retail sales the last 10 days before Christmas is just loony. There's not much of a spike in Bush's approval ratings yet, either. I am not sure the capture changes the calculus of the presidential election much, although that footage of a completely humbled Saddam getting his teeth examined like a mule juxtaposed with Bush's squinty-eyed serious face will make a hell of a campaign ad. Howard Dean spoke for the first time today about what he thinks the capture means, and what we should do next. His rivals for the nomination have been positively gleeful in their condemnation of him since the capture. In the last few weeks, it's become fashionable to talk about Dean as a "teflon candidate"--as if nothing sticks to him on his march toward the nomination. We'll see if that's still true now.
But beyond symbols and speculation, what have we gained from the capture of Saddam? What, precisely, is different today from what it was 48 hours ago? I have no idea.
I've been trying to decide what to think all day about the capture of Saddam Hussein. And I've finally decided that its significance is mostly symbolic. The idea that he was directing all phases of guerilla resistance against the occupying forces from a hole in the ground in Tikrit is silly, so the idea that the resistance is going to melt away now that he's gone is equally silly. It's a safe bet that the drip-drip-drip of attacks will continue as they have for months. (To their credit, American generals in Iraq have not promised any rose gardens now that Saddam has been nabbed.) Afghan government officials seem to think it might blunt the insurgency there--although their comments in this AP story sound like wishful thinking to me. There are plenty of stories today pointing out how Osama bin Laden is still in the wind, but unless he and Saddam really were running buddies, the capture won't help us find The Evil One at all. It's likely that the intelligence assets that were shifted from Afghanistan to Iraq before the war are not going to be shifted back now that Saddam has been caught.
On the homefront, the supposed "Saddam rally" on Wall Street melted before the closing bell today, and the idea floated by a couple of stories yesterday that the capture might somehow boost retail sales the last 10 days before Christmas is just loony. There's not much of a spike in Bush's approval ratings yet, either. I am not sure the capture changes the calculus of the presidential election much, although that footage of a completely humbled Saddam getting his teeth examined like a mule juxtaposed with Bush's squinty-eyed serious face will make a hell of a campaign ad. Howard Dean spoke for the first time today about what he thinks the capture means, and what we should do next. His rivals for the nomination have been positively gleeful in their condemnation of him since the capture. In the last few weeks, it's become fashionable to talk about Dean as a "teflon candidate"--as if nothing sticks to him on his march toward the nomination. We'll see if that's still true now.
But beyond symbols and speculation, what have we gained from the capture of Saddam? What, precisely, is different today from what it was 48 hours ago? I have no idea.
