Wednesday, February 18, 2004
Warning Sign
What, we worry? We should, as Doug Ireland notes on TomPaine.com. Independent voters and Republican crossovers went largely for John Edwards last night--and Kerry was also trounced by Edwards among suburban voters in Wisconsin. What this means is that Kerry's strength is concentrated among the Democratic faithful, but he's much weaker with the very people a Democrat must attract to beat Bush.
OK, so maybe Edwards will stop him on Super Tuesday? Not so fast, gringo. Unlike Wisconsin, independents and crossovers can't vote in the Super Tuesday states--those primaries are for Democratic registrants only, and it's likely that Edwards the moderate will get killed in more liberal California and New York. Plus, he's nearly broke. Add it all up, and it seems likely that his high-water mark was last night.
C.K. Rairden of the website Washington Dispatch criticizes Kerry on the same terms I do--for running a generic campaign when the party is dying for new blood, and for doing it in a snooze-a-riffic style. And as for the exit poll numbers from last night, Rairden has a gloomy perspective on Edwards' strength among independents and moderates, and what it means for Kerry. Says Rairden, "The Democratic base is solid. It's time to move on to the swing voter or face a harsh reality in November."
If the worst happens, let nobody say we weren't warned.
What, we worry? We should, as Doug Ireland notes on TomPaine.com. Independent voters and Republican crossovers went largely for John Edwards last night--and Kerry was also trounced by Edwards among suburban voters in Wisconsin. What this means is that Kerry's strength is concentrated among the Democratic faithful, but he's much weaker with the very people a Democrat must attract to beat Bush.
OK, so maybe Edwards will stop him on Super Tuesday? Not so fast, gringo. Unlike Wisconsin, independents and crossovers can't vote in the Super Tuesday states--those primaries are for Democratic registrants only, and it's likely that Edwards the moderate will get killed in more liberal California and New York. Plus, he's nearly broke. Add it all up, and it seems likely that his high-water mark was last night.
C.K. Rairden of the website Washington Dispatch criticizes Kerry on the same terms I do--for running a generic campaign when the party is dying for new blood, and for doing it in a snooze-a-riffic style. And as for the exit poll numbers from last night, Rairden has a gloomy perspective on Edwards' strength among independents and moderates, and what it means for Kerry. Says Rairden, "The Democratic base is solid. It's time to move on to the swing voter or face a harsh reality in November."
If the worst happens, let nobody say we weren't warned.
