Thursday, August 26, 2004
The Comeback Kid Gets His Wish
We should have seen this coming. A Los Angeles Times poll now shows Bush on top of Kerry nationwide, 49-46, still within the margin of error, but the first time this year that Bush had led an L.A. Times survey. Worry, says Jerry Bowles. Worry, says Josh Marshall. Jerry's colleague, Groom, says worry is premature. Yes, the Swift Boat controversy has had its effect, but wait until after the convention next week and see how the undecideds break in battleground states.
All due respect to Groom, but I'm gonna beat the rush and start worrying now. We're at a very bad convergence of circumstances right now--two solid weeks of bad, poll-moving news for Kerry, to be followed immediately by the Republican Convention, which, by the very nature of political conventions, was going to cause movement from Kerry back to Bush anyhow. What if the post-convention polls show the race going from their current dead-heat ranges to to something like 52-43 in favor of Bush? That will set the storyline for September. Why do I suspect it will be something like, "Americans fall in line behind their president" and not "Bush takes lead in shifting campaign battle"? If John Kerry fancies himself "the comeback kid," he'd better be right.
Granted, there will still be two months to go following the Republican Convention, and lots could happen. I'd like to think that Kerry would destroy Bush in the debates, but the conventional wisdom four years ago was that Gore would destroy Bush in the debates, and he didn't--the American people preferred an amiable doofus to a smart guy who wasn't afraid to show it. And besides, I will believe we're going to have presidential debates this year when I see the two guys on-stage and not before. And Bush possesses a powerful set of advantages, chief among them a willingness to do whatever it takes to win and the truth be damned. This isn't going to be the only dirty fight of this campaign. If Kerry has a hope in hell of victory, he'd better be tougher in responding to the next one. What he's done in response to the Swift Boat Liars hasn't shown me much.
Quote of the Day: From a city council candidate somewhere in Indiana, as reported by a friend: "I can't do things 100 percent better, but I will do 100 things one percent better." This lends itself to lots of catchy slogans: "Smith--doing more stuff about as well as anybody." "Smith--just as good as the next guy." "Smith--a marginal improvement." And so on.
New on The Hits Just Keep On Comin': Send Before Midnight Tomorrow.
We should have seen this coming. A Los Angeles Times poll now shows Bush on top of Kerry nationwide, 49-46, still within the margin of error, but the first time this year that Bush had led an L.A. Times survey. Worry, says Jerry Bowles. Worry, says Josh Marshall. Jerry's colleague, Groom, says worry is premature. Yes, the Swift Boat controversy has had its effect, but wait until after the convention next week and see how the undecideds break in battleground states.
All due respect to Groom, but I'm gonna beat the rush and start worrying now. We're at a very bad convergence of circumstances right now--two solid weeks of bad, poll-moving news for Kerry, to be followed immediately by the Republican Convention, which, by the very nature of political conventions, was going to cause movement from Kerry back to Bush anyhow. What if the post-convention polls show the race going from their current dead-heat ranges to to something like 52-43 in favor of Bush? That will set the storyline for September. Why do I suspect it will be something like, "Americans fall in line behind their president" and not "Bush takes lead in shifting campaign battle"? If John Kerry fancies himself "the comeback kid," he'd better be right.
Granted, there will still be two months to go following the Republican Convention, and lots could happen. I'd like to think that Kerry would destroy Bush in the debates, but the conventional wisdom four years ago was that Gore would destroy Bush in the debates, and he didn't--the American people preferred an amiable doofus to a smart guy who wasn't afraid to show it. And besides, I will believe we're going to have presidential debates this year when I see the two guys on-stage and not before. And Bush possesses a powerful set of advantages, chief among them a willingness to do whatever it takes to win and the truth be damned. This isn't going to be the only dirty fight of this campaign. If Kerry has a hope in hell of victory, he'd better be tougher in responding to the next one. What he's done in response to the Swift Boat Liars hasn't shown me much.
Quote of the Day: From a city council candidate somewhere in Indiana, as reported by a friend: "I can't do things 100 percent better, but I will do 100 things one percent better." This lends itself to lots of catchy slogans: "Smith--doing more stuff about as well as anybody." "Smith--just as good as the next guy." "Smith--a marginal improvement." And so on.
New on The Hits Just Keep On Comin': Send Before Midnight Tomorrow.
