Sunday, September 26, 2004
Going Red, Feeling Blue
The AP has an interesting analysis this morning of the race in this year's newest battleground--Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. We've been hip-deep in candidates all summer--Bush was in Janesville Friday (in the same hotel ballroom The Mrs. was in later that night for another function.) At the moment, Bush leads Kerry by double digits in the latest polling up here, although the Kerry campaign insists the state is still in play, and even the Bush people question the numbers. Polling is all over the place in Iowa, although most polls of the state show Bush with a slight lead. The most recent poll I can find for Minnesota shows Kerry leading, but Bush gaining.
Smarter people than I will have to explain why Bush is running so strongly in Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest this time. A public radio story a couple of weeks ago reported that manufacturing jobs have made a slight comeback in Wisconsin in recent months after years of losses, so maybe swing voters here are buying the idea that the economy is turning around. Apart from that, who knows? The numbers regarding Bush's ability to fight terrorism and handle Iraq are similar here to what they are nationwide--more people think Bush can do it better, yada yada yada. In the end, terrorism and Iraq will be what decides the election--here and nationwide.
(I have not lived in a "red" state since Illinois went for Reagan in 1984 and I cast my vote for the beleaguered Fritz Mondale. For the next several elections, I lived in Iowa, which went for the Duke in '88 and Bill Clinton twice. In 2000, I'd moved to Wisconsin, which Al Gore pulled out by less than 6,000 votes. So if I want to keep the streak intact, well, New England is lovely this time of year.)
Recommended Reading: Everyone's heard that some old Clinton hands--Joe Lockhart, Mike McCurry, and Paul Begala--have joined up with the Kerry campaign. What's been less reported is the fact that several Reagan handlers--Peggy Noonan, Michael Deaver, and Ken Duberstein--have recently begun advising the Bush campaign. Nina Burleigh analyzes Bush's attempts to cast himself as "The Son of Reagan." (He's been at it longer than you think.)
John Nichols writes that CBS did more than simply bring down opprobrium on itself for rushing to air with a story on Bush's National Guard service based on forged memos. It made sure the truth about Bush's service will probably never come out. The story about CBS became the story, and not the essential truths contained in the memos. According to a typist who worked for Bush's commander, the memos themselves may have been forged, but they accurately represented the sentiments of the commander.
And finally, for those of you who have been wondering what's become of John Edwards, well, we still don't know. But as for his wife, Elizabeth, we found her--reading the Daily Kos.
The AP has an interesting analysis this morning of the race in this year's newest battleground--Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. We've been hip-deep in candidates all summer--Bush was in Janesville Friday (in the same hotel ballroom The Mrs. was in later that night for another function.) At the moment, Bush leads Kerry by double digits in the latest polling up here, although the Kerry campaign insists the state is still in play, and even the Bush people question the numbers. Polling is all over the place in Iowa, although most polls of the state show Bush with a slight lead. The most recent poll I can find for Minnesota shows Kerry leading, but Bush gaining.
Smarter people than I will have to explain why Bush is running so strongly in Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest this time. A public radio story a couple of weeks ago reported that manufacturing jobs have made a slight comeback in Wisconsin in recent months after years of losses, so maybe swing voters here are buying the idea that the economy is turning around. Apart from that, who knows? The numbers regarding Bush's ability to fight terrorism and handle Iraq are similar here to what they are nationwide--more people think Bush can do it better, yada yada yada. In the end, terrorism and Iraq will be what decides the election--here and nationwide.
(I have not lived in a "red" state since Illinois went for Reagan in 1984 and I cast my vote for the beleaguered Fritz Mondale. For the next several elections, I lived in Iowa, which went for the Duke in '88 and Bill Clinton twice. In 2000, I'd moved to Wisconsin, which Al Gore pulled out by less than 6,000 votes. So if I want to keep the streak intact, well, New England is lovely this time of year.)
Recommended Reading: Everyone's heard that some old Clinton hands--Joe Lockhart, Mike McCurry, and Paul Begala--have joined up with the Kerry campaign. What's been less reported is the fact that several Reagan handlers--Peggy Noonan, Michael Deaver, and Ken Duberstein--have recently begun advising the Bush campaign. Nina Burleigh analyzes Bush's attempts to cast himself as "The Son of Reagan." (He's been at it longer than you think.)
John Nichols writes that CBS did more than simply bring down opprobrium on itself for rushing to air with a story on Bush's National Guard service based on forged memos. It made sure the truth about Bush's service will probably never come out. The story about CBS became the story, and not the essential truths contained in the memos. According to a typist who worked for Bush's commander, the memos themselves may have been forged, but they accurately represented the sentiments of the commander.
And finally, for those of you who have been wondering what's become of John Edwards, well, we still don't know. But as for his wife, Elizabeth, we found her--reading the Daily Kos.
