Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Bush Lands Plane on a Carnival Cruise Liner, Makes Sweet Love to Kathie Lee Gifford, Hits the Buffet
Fascinating conversation over at Eschaton regarding precisely what sort of October Surprise the Bush campaign may have in store in the next two weeks. Lots of funny suggestions from readers (including the title of this post, and many variations on "Bush walks and chews gum at the same time, without tripping over a rake or anything"), but some others with varying degrees of plausibility. Some highlights:
--Bush makes another in-uniform trip to Iraq or Afghanistan.
Probability: high. Probably not Iraq, given the lack of security in the Green Zone; but a photo op with Karzai, freedom on the march, and all that? Irresistable pictures for gullible TV networks.
--A brief red alert, followed by a speech suggesting that Syrian or Iranian agents were ready to nuke Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland (who knows, but in a swing state, naturally), but we caught 'em.
Probability of this specific scenario: medium; probability that ominous rumors will be spread by the Justice Department and Homeland Security at some point in the next two weeks: mortal fucking lock.
--Attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, either by us or by Israel--if they do it, we have to support/defend them.
Probability: of us doing it, low; of Israel doing it, high. This attack has been rumored to be imminent for months; Ariel Sharon knows Bush will roll over on whatever he wants to do, but he can't be so sure about Kerry; ergo, if he can help Bush, he will.
--Some sort of health crisis involving a member of the Bush family, but not Bush himself.
Probability: low. Yes, the gullible TV channels would fall all over themselves to show concern, and would spend lots of time talking to doctors and not talking about the campaign, but the whole idea seems to lack panache.
--Osama captured/Osama's body found/Osama thought to be blown to unidentifiable bits.
Probability: medium. This is the one we've all been expecting, which of itself means it's less likely to be the actual ruse. Still, as somebody observed at Eschaton, if Rumsfeld held a press conference saying we think we got him somewhere in Afghanistan, lots of people would be likely to buy it. Never mind that we'll probably get a Christmas card from Osama six weeks from now--by then, he will have served his purpose.
--Fake assassination attempt.
Probability: low, because the Secret Service wouldn't permit it. Probability of somebody going nuts at a rally and trying to get to the stage only to be tackled by agents after getting in front of the TV cameras but before getting anywhere near the president: high.
--Mary Cheney, distraught, attempts suicide.
Probability: low. This scenario assumes she was in the closet before Kerry mentioned her in the debate, which she was not, although only a tiny percentage of the electorate probably knows that. Nevertheless, this ruse doesn't seem like something Dick and Lynne would sign on to.
--Zarqawi captured in Iraq.
Probability: high. Yesterday's story about Zarqawi announcing he's an ally of Bin Laden got a lot of headlines, but it shouldn't have surprised anyone. He's been a useful surrogate for Bin Laden for many months, and we have a better idea where he is.
--Bush admits mistakes in Iraq, begs forgiveness, promises new start.
Probability: low. Actual usefulness in clinching the election: high. This would bring swing voters over by the thousands. Think outside of the box, Karl.
--Some Kerry scandal is revealed, first by wingnut websites, which "legitimize" it for the national media.
Rumors are flying among the Free Republic crowd that there are photos or video of Kerry burning an American flag sometime in the early 1970s, but it doesn't have to be that. Whatever it is, it doesn't even have to be true. Something utterly wild and fraudulent could be released over Halloween weekend, and given the irresponsibility of the media, be the top story for three days, and sway enough votes to decide the election. Probability: high.
--Kerry gets excommunicated by the Catholic Church.
Probability: low. The church can't move that fast.
--Something involving Fidel Castro, in hopes of locking up Florida.
Probability: low. The time to do Fidel was over the summer.
Some of those commenting in the Eschaton discussion suggest that Kerry may have a surprise for Bush involving intelligence, thanks to the many, many agents who feel as though they've been screwed by the administration. Others feel that the Repugs may not need a major surprise to short-circuit the news cycles leading up to the vote. Their plans to suppress the vote and challenge results coast to coast may have them feeling confident enough already. But Rove has said something is coming, and so we wait. Look for a lot more on this topic in the blogosphere over the next couple of days, so when it happens we can say, "I told you so."
Fascinating conversation over at Eschaton regarding precisely what sort of October Surprise the Bush campaign may have in store in the next two weeks. Lots of funny suggestions from readers (including the title of this post, and many variations on "Bush walks and chews gum at the same time, without tripping over a rake or anything"), but some others with varying degrees of plausibility. Some highlights:
--Bush makes another in-uniform trip to Iraq or Afghanistan.
Probability: high. Probably not Iraq, given the lack of security in the Green Zone; but a photo op with Karzai, freedom on the march, and all that? Irresistable pictures for gullible TV networks.
--A brief red alert, followed by a speech suggesting that Syrian or Iranian agents were ready to nuke Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland (who knows, but in a swing state, naturally), but we caught 'em.
Probability of this specific scenario: medium; probability that ominous rumors will be spread by the Justice Department and Homeland Security at some point in the next two weeks: mortal fucking lock.
--Attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, either by us or by Israel--if they do it, we have to support/defend them.
Probability: of us doing it, low; of Israel doing it, high. This attack has been rumored to be imminent for months; Ariel Sharon knows Bush will roll over on whatever he wants to do, but he can't be so sure about Kerry; ergo, if he can help Bush, he will.
--Some sort of health crisis involving a member of the Bush family, but not Bush himself.
Probability: low. Yes, the gullible TV channels would fall all over themselves to show concern, and would spend lots of time talking to doctors and not talking about the campaign, but the whole idea seems to lack panache.
--Osama captured/Osama's body found/Osama thought to be blown to unidentifiable bits.
Probability: medium. This is the one we've all been expecting, which of itself means it's less likely to be the actual ruse. Still, as somebody observed at Eschaton, if Rumsfeld held a press conference saying we think we got him somewhere in Afghanistan, lots of people would be likely to buy it. Never mind that we'll probably get a Christmas card from Osama six weeks from now--by then, he will have served his purpose.
--Fake assassination attempt.
Probability: low, because the Secret Service wouldn't permit it. Probability of somebody going nuts at a rally and trying to get to the stage only to be tackled by agents after getting in front of the TV cameras but before getting anywhere near the president: high.
--Mary Cheney, distraught, attempts suicide.
Probability: low. This scenario assumes she was in the closet before Kerry mentioned her in the debate, which she was not, although only a tiny percentage of the electorate probably knows that. Nevertheless, this ruse doesn't seem like something Dick and Lynne would sign on to.
--Zarqawi captured in Iraq.
Probability: high. Yesterday's story about Zarqawi announcing he's an ally of Bin Laden got a lot of headlines, but it shouldn't have surprised anyone. He's been a useful surrogate for Bin Laden for many months, and we have a better idea where he is.
--Bush admits mistakes in Iraq, begs forgiveness, promises new start.
Probability: low. Actual usefulness in clinching the election: high. This would bring swing voters over by the thousands. Think outside of the box, Karl.
--Some Kerry scandal is revealed, first by wingnut websites, which "legitimize" it for the national media.
Rumors are flying among the Free Republic crowd that there are photos or video of Kerry burning an American flag sometime in the early 1970s, but it doesn't have to be that. Whatever it is, it doesn't even have to be true. Something utterly wild and fraudulent could be released over Halloween weekend, and given the irresponsibility of the media, be the top story for three days, and sway enough votes to decide the election. Probability: high.
--Kerry gets excommunicated by the Catholic Church.
Probability: low. The church can't move that fast.
--Something involving Fidel Castro, in hopes of locking up Florida.
Probability: low. The time to do Fidel was over the summer.
Some of those commenting in the Eschaton discussion suggest that Kerry may have a surprise for Bush involving intelligence, thanks to the many, many agents who feel as though they've been screwed by the administration. Others feel that the Repugs may not need a major surprise to short-circuit the news cycles leading up to the vote. Their plans to suppress the vote and challenge results coast to coast may have them feeling confident enough already. But Rove has said something is coming, and so we wait. Look for a lot more on this topic in the blogosphere over the next couple of days, so when it happens we can say, "I told you so."
