Tuesday, October 26, 2004
November 3 and After
So we've established that nobody knows what's going to happen on November 2, and those who say they do, don't. So let's try answering this one: What's going to happen on November 3, once the polls are closed and a few states are ultra-close? Nick Confessore over at Tapped says the morning-after posturing has already begun: the Republican National Committee is laying the groundwork for allegations of massive vote fraud on the part of Democrats in various states--even as they engage in activities aimed at suppressing the vote as much as possible.
How big a margin would Kerry require? Well, how big have you got? Confessore says, "I have a feeling there is almost no permutation of a close Kerry victory the GOP will be willing to accept as legitimate." Indeed, just as there was no Gore victory scenario that the Repugs would abide in 2000, the same will probably be true this time, too. In exactly the same scenario as last time--Kerry winning on points in the legal system--the Republicans' move-along, nothing-more-to-see-here approach of 2000 will be transformed into a kicking, screaming, scorched-earth jihad against Kerry and the Democrats, at who-knows-what cost to the Republic.
What can we citizens do if we wake up on November 3 and fear that the election has been stolen? One group is already organizing vigils and protests. The impact of public protest is still a wild card in most post-Election Day scenarios. Last time, the only groups rioting in the streets were paid Repug operatives in Florida. This time, if the election is perceived to be stolen, the street play will be far more intense and widespread.
We are living in dangerously weird times now. Smart people just shrug and admit they're dazed and confused. The only ones left with any confidence at all are the New Dumb. It is the beginning of the end of our world as we knew it. Doom is the operative ethic.... Guaranteed Fear and Loathing. Abandon all hope. Prepare for the Weirdness....
So we've established that nobody knows what's going to happen on November 2, and those who say they do, don't. So let's try answering this one: What's going to happen on November 3, once the polls are closed and a few states are ultra-close? Nick Confessore over at Tapped says the morning-after posturing has already begun: the Republican National Committee is laying the groundwork for allegations of massive vote fraud on the part of Democrats in various states--even as they engage in activities aimed at suppressing the vote as much as possible.
Having done as much as possible to create the conditions for a confusing election, the GOP is getting ready to cast the inevitable results of that confusion--people turning up in the wrong precincts, people who've moved from the neighborhood they originally registered and are trying to vote wherever they live now, and so forth--as symptoms of outright election fraud.Legal analyst John Dean (yes, that one) looks into his crystal ball and finds lawsuits from here, to, well Christmas--at least.
[G]iven the Republican control of the government, if Karl Rove is on the losing side, it could be years: He will take every issue (if he is losing) to its ultimate appeal in every state he can.But the lawsuits are only one part of the morning-after strategy. In boxing, the presumption in a championship fight is that if the challenger is going to win, he has to knock out the champ. Victory on points, even if fairly clear-cut, is not generally good enough for a challenger to be declared champion. The champion, however, can retain the title on points. We can guess that the electoral numbers themselves will not provide a knockout for Kerry--if that punch is to come, it will come in the post-Election Day arena of public opinion. The Democrats have a distinct disadvantage in their ability to seize the initiative in opinion-shaping--so barring a major transformation, whatever battling is done after Election Day will likely take place in an arena where the presumption is that Bush has already retained the title on points and Kerry, like Gore in 2000, is gaming the refs and the rules to stay in the fight. In the days and weeks following Election Day, Kerry will need some enormous victory, both legal and perceptual, to seize the advantage. In the end, he will have to win by far more than Bush would have to win by in order to claim the mantle of legitimacy, if not the presidency itself.
The cost of such litigation will be great--with the capital of citizens' trust in their government, and its election processes, sinking along with the nation's (if not the world's) financial markets, which loathe uncertainty. After Bush v. Gore, is there any doubt how the high Court would resolve another round? This time, though, the Court, too, will pay more dearly. With persuasive power as its only source of authority, the Court's power will diminish as the American people's cynicism skyrockets.
How big a margin would Kerry require? Well, how big have you got? Confessore says, "I have a feeling there is almost no permutation of a close Kerry victory the GOP will be willing to accept as legitimate." Indeed, just as there was no Gore victory scenario that the Repugs would abide in 2000, the same will probably be true this time, too. In exactly the same scenario as last time--Kerry winning on points in the legal system--the Republicans' move-along, nothing-more-to-see-here approach of 2000 will be transformed into a kicking, screaming, scorched-earth jihad against Kerry and the Democrats, at who-knows-what cost to the Republic.
What can we citizens do if we wake up on November 3 and fear that the election has been stolen? One group is already organizing vigils and protests. The impact of public protest is still a wild card in most post-Election Day scenarios. Last time, the only groups rioting in the streets were paid Repug operatives in Florida. This time, if the election is perceived to be stolen, the street play will be far more intense and widespread.
We are living in dangerously weird times now. Smart people just shrug and admit they're dazed and confused. The only ones left with any confidence at all are the New Dumb. It is the beginning of the end of our world as we knew it. Doom is the operative ethic.... Guaranteed Fear and Loathing. Abandon all hope. Prepare for the Weirdness....
