Monday, November 15, 2004
Wake Up and Smell the Circumstantial Evidence
For a moment over the weekend I was freaked out by the use of the word "purge" to describe what is reportedly going on at the CIA--all those connotations of the old Soviet Union--until I realized that the word "purge" is the least scary part of it. What we're seeing looks an awful lot like a witch hunt. Josh Marshall says it looks to him like the agency professionals who know what they're doing are being replaced by political people who know only what they believe. Both groups--pros and pols--have been wrong now and then, but it's demonstrably true that the pols have been wrong far more often on intelligence matters (and more spectacularly) than the pros. Bottom line: Be very afraid.
Elsewhere, the Boston Globe published an article yesterday speculating on what will happen if Roe v. Wade is overturned in the next four years, as most of us expect. Reading Drake Bennett's analysis, you gotta wonder if the Repugs really want Roe tossed out--it might be most useful to them as something to demonize, because demonization costs nothing (and helps win elections). Once Roe is gone, the conservatives in the party will want action instead of just talk, and they'll want it immediately. Bennett says they'll get it, up to a point. Anywhere from 12 to 30 states have abortion laws in place and ready to go the moment Roe is overturned, but what those laws do varies from place to place. Some states would allow abortion, some would only limit it, and some would ban it outright. The wingnuts would then most likely demand that Congress step in (ignoring its supposed commitment to federalism) and outlaw the practice nationwide--at which point, Bennett says, the party's alliance between moderates (who tend to believe that abortion should remain legal in at least some cases) and conservatives would likely blow apart.
And in our WTF political moment of the day, the first Zogby poll taken after the election reveals that Bush's approval rating is 48 percent positive, 51 percent negative. Read that again: 48 percent positive, 51 percent negative. That means 10 days after reelecting the guy, the electorate thinks he's doing a poor job, by about the same margin he was reelected by. WTF, indeed. When you match this up with the election-day exit polls, which were wrong this time for the first time in history, it only increases the circumstantial evidence of an election theft.
Speaking of WTF, if you haven't seen the "Flabbergasted Eagle" yet--maybe you'll want to put it on your Christmas list.
For a moment over the weekend I was freaked out by the use of the word "purge" to describe what is reportedly going on at the CIA--all those connotations of the old Soviet Union--until I realized that the word "purge" is the least scary part of it. What we're seeing looks an awful lot like a witch hunt. Josh Marshall says it looks to him like the agency professionals who know what they're doing are being replaced by political people who know only what they believe. Both groups--pros and pols--have been wrong now and then, but it's demonstrably true that the pols have been wrong far more often on intelligence matters (and more spectacularly) than the pros. Bottom line: Be very afraid.
Elsewhere, the Boston Globe published an article yesterday speculating on what will happen if Roe v. Wade is overturned in the next four years, as most of us expect. Reading Drake Bennett's analysis, you gotta wonder if the Repugs really want Roe tossed out--it might be most useful to them as something to demonize, because demonization costs nothing (and helps win elections). Once Roe is gone, the conservatives in the party will want action instead of just talk, and they'll want it immediately. Bennett says they'll get it, up to a point. Anywhere from 12 to 30 states have abortion laws in place and ready to go the moment Roe is overturned, but what those laws do varies from place to place. Some states would allow abortion, some would only limit it, and some would ban it outright. The wingnuts would then most likely demand that Congress step in (ignoring its supposed commitment to federalism) and outlaw the practice nationwide--at which point, Bennett says, the party's alliance between moderates (who tend to believe that abortion should remain legal in at least some cases) and conservatives would likely blow apart.
And in our WTF political moment of the day, the first Zogby poll taken after the election reveals that Bush's approval rating is 48 percent positive, 51 percent negative. Read that again: 48 percent positive, 51 percent negative. That means 10 days after reelecting the guy, the electorate thinks he's doing a poor job, by about the same margin he was reelected by. WTF, indeed. When you match this up with the election-day exit polls, which were wrong this time for the first time in history, it only increases the circumstantial evidence of an election theft.
Speaking of WTF, if you haven't seen the "Flabbergasted Eagle" yet--maybe you'll want to put it on your Christmas list.
