Monday, July 04, 2005

Wishing, and Other Crap
Instead of a July 4 Address to the Nation today, I offer a couple of predictions:

Prediction #1: Even if Karl Rove was the one who outed CIA agent Valerie Plame, a year from today Rove will still have his job. Nothing will come of it--no indictments, no resignations, and in fact, very little publicity at all.

Reasoning: For the same reason the Downing Street Memo isn't getting any traction--because it involves events that took place a year or two ago, it's perceived as old news. In addition, if the official word of Rove's involvement comes later this week, it'll be up against news of Bush's Supreme Court announcement--and if there's any coverage of Rove by the mainstreamers, at all, it'll likely get lost. (And imagine what will happen if this is the week they find whatever parts of Natalee Holloway haven't been eaten by fish.)

Prediction #2: Whoever Bush nominates will be confirmed.

Reasoning: My e-mail inbox has been filling up since Friday with exhortations from MoveOn, the ACLU, Americans United, and from friends telling me what I can do to save the court--sign petitions, call my senators, write letters to the editor, and even to e-mail Bush asking him to appoint a moderate (insert bitter chortle here). The mobilization is a necessary part of the democratic process--but nobody should have any illusions about its likelihood of success. There will be massive amounts of political blood and treasure invested on both sides, but in the end, it's all for show. The unhappy fact is that Bush could nominate James Dobson himself and all the Democrats in the world couldn't stop it. Whatever slim chance we had to stop this nomination went out the window with the filibuster deal earlier this summer--the senators who brokered the deal have already made clear that anyone less extreme than the godawful Janice Rogers Brown will be fine with them, thus the seven Republicans in the group (and Joe Lieberman) can be expected to vote with Bush no matter who he sends up. End of discussion.

Our really legitimate chance to stop this nomination was on November 2nd, 2004, and we failed. So now we have to take our medicine on this nomination--for the next 30 or 40 years. To believe anything else is wishful thinking, and as we used to say back on the farm, "Wish in one hand and crap in the other and see which one fills up first."

Recommended Reading: For a fitting July 4 Address to the Nation, click here. (If you get asked to register, enter the e-mail address mqxea@trashmail.net, and use the password trashmail. Fake registration info from BugMeNot.com.)

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